Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.016416 0.018585 0.020934 0.023670 0.026770 0.030173 0.034195
2025-08-31 0.012776 0.015708 0.019158 0.023520 0.028891 0.035298 0.043532
2025-09-07 0.011053 0.014380 0.018520 0.024056 0.031278 0.040396 0.052813
2025-09-14 0.009338 0.012720 0.017125 0.023293 0.031726 0.042880 0.058809
2025-09-21 0.008192 0.011611 0.016245 0.022998 0.032614 0.045859 0.065569
2025-09-28 0.007148 0.010497 0.015199 0.022298 0.032782 0.047755 0.070876
2025-10-05 0.006741 0.010229 0.015286 0.023178 0.035232 0.053032 0.081477
2025-10-12 0.006307 0.009863 0.015177 0.023725 0.037194 0.057710 0.091552
2025-10-19 0.005945 0.009562 0.015123 0.024325 0.039253 0.062665 0.102452
2025-10-26 0.005463 0.009022 0.014640 0.024186 0.040103 0.065754 0.110584
2025-11-02 0.005071 0.008587 0.014276 0.024192 0.041160 0.069224 0.119597
2025-11-09 0.004634 0.008035 0.013670 0.023730 0.041374 0.071282 0.126340
2025-11-16 0.004363 0.007748 0.013492 0.024001 0.042898 0.075740 0.137775
2025-11-23 0.004042 0.007346 0.013085 0.023834 0.043637 0.078895 0.147181
2025-11-30 0.003864 0.007184 0.013080 0.024378 0.045690 0.084538 0.161627
2025-12-07 0.003511 0.006668 0.012393 0.023604 0.045226 0.085527 0.167352
2025-12-14 0.003259 0.006318 0.011981 0.023305 0.045622 0.088124 0.176371
2025-12-21 0.002979 0.005889 0.011384 0.022596 0.045153 0.089015 0.182063
2025-12-28 0.002918 0.005884 0.011596 0.023488 0.047918 0.096421 0.201561
2026-01-04 0.002820 0.005797 0.011640 0.024043 0.050039 0.102705 0.219280
2026-01-11 0.002735 0.005726 0.011708 0.024650 0.052315 0.109474 0.238604
2026-01-18 0.002577 0.005493 0.011430 0.024510 0.053000 0.112986 0.251185
2026-01-25 0.002446 0.005305 0.011229 0.024515 0.053993 0.117218 0.265708